The flood is coming: Water security issues at COP27

CCB • November 21, 2022

Credit: Photograph by Joseph Eid / AFP / Getty & Pexels-2886921 from pixabay

21 November 2022, Sharm el-Sheikh (Egypt) - Although water is not included in the architecture of the Paris Agreement, it's a key topic in the climate agenda as more and more countries and regions are facing the negative consequences of climate change related to water resources. The water crisis is global: droughts, floods, and lack of fresh and clean water are among the negative effects caused by the imbalance of the climate system, already leading to huge infrastructural, financial, and social losses and issues. 


Therefore, COP27 paid much attention to water security, such as sustainable access to clean water to maintain human health, well-being and socio-economic development, protection from water-borne pollution and water-related disasters. There was a Water Pavilion and Ocean Pavilion at the COP venue, and November 14th was declared Water Day as the daily theme of the Conference. But how do these formal acts of attracting attention lead to results and to help solving problems related to water security?

Loss and damage

For the first time in 30 years of UN climate negotiations, thanks to persistent demands from vulnerable countries and the civil society, the discussion on loss and damage  took center stage at COP27, and negotiations were focused on agreeing on the creation of a financing mechanism. As a result, they reached a milestone agreement and a Loss and Damage Fund was established for vulnerable countries.


Civil society activists have been constantly drawing attention to the consequences of climate change and the need for urgent assistance to those who suffer the most from them. On 11 November, a civil society actions -- #FloodTheCop - directly symbolized the floods that many regions are facing. 7 women wearing blue dresses with the slogans “The flood is coming” and “Pay now” carried a simple and understandable message: the G7 and other rich nations have a moral and legal responsibility to tax and wind-down fossil fuel companies based in their territories, and to redirect those finances to people in countries who are suffering the most losses and damages due to climate change. 


Credit: Bianka Csenki (Artivist Network), Instagram @8iank4 (@artivistnet)

Water in the 6th IPCC Assessment Report

Not only the countries of the global south are facing water issues. Water safety is relevant for everyone and the evidence for this is given in the 6th IPCC Assessment Report. During the side the event “IPCC AR6 water security conclusions & launch of the Expanded Water Tracker for National Climate Plans" held on 12 November, Richard Betts, from the University of Exeter and the Met Office and a Lead Author on the IPCC Water chapter, presented the conclusions of the chapter 4 of the report: 

  • 4 billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month per year;
  • The total mass of ice is decreasing in all glacial areas;
  • Hundreds of millions of people face changing precipitation patterns: 163 million people face drier conditions, 498 million face wetter conditions.
  • Cases of heavy precipitation are increasing all over the world, which leads to floods
  • Changes in river flows are also observed in many regions (for example, a reduction in hydro energy generation in Northeastern Brazil caused by a 30% reduction in the flow in Sobradinho Dam)
  • The number of droughts is increasing in many regions. And extreme droughts are projected to become more likely with increasing climate change in many regions.

From global changes to real local consequences

Examples of frightening trends are happening all over the world today and directly affect the health and well-being of people, as well as the economic stability of countries. For example, droughts lead to huge damage on food safety. The drought in May-June 2019 in the southwestern of China led to the drying up of more than 100 rivers, and more than 640,100 hectares of crops were destroyed. Direct economic losses amounted to 2.8 billion yuan ($400 million).


This proves that until now we cannot predict the local consequences of climate change and its risks. There is a huge gap between scientific data on the global situation and the local adaptation measures of cities, regions and countries. Rosalind Conforth, from the Walker Institute, shared the approach of the My Climate Risk initiative, which aims to develop and implement a bottom-up approach to regional climate risks. It helps to narrow the gap between massive climate models and apply locally the decision-making practices.

AWARe: Action on Water, Adaptation and Resilience

The new initiative for Water Adaptation and Resilience (AWARe) has been presented at COP27, reflecting the importance of water as both a key climate change problem and a potential solution.  The AWARe initiative, which was drafted by the COP27 Presidency with the support of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), was launched on the Water Day held on 14 November. It is a collective effort, with inputs from many stakeholders and UN agencies.


The AWARe initiative has three main aims:

  1. Decrease water losses worldwide and improve water supply;
  2. Propose and support implementing mutually agreed policy and methods for cooperative water-related adaptation action and its co-benefits;
  3. Promote cooperation and interlinkages between water and climate action in order to achieve Agenda 2030, in particular SDG 6.


It seeks to support promotion of sustainable waste-water management, sanitation policies and strategies, and water-wise energy pathways besides working on improving early warning systems for extreme weather events. It will also work towards linking water resources policies with national climate action to reflect climate change long-term impacts on water resources and demand, and to support preparedness and adaptation measures.


As stated by Dr Elena Manaenkova, WMO Deputy Secretary-General: “[...] WMO supports AWARe as an initiative complementary to the Early Warning for All and the Water and Climate Coalition. AWARe can be a practical vehicle to implement Early Warnings for All, and the Water and Climate Leaders Call to improve water data and information for a climate ready world”.

Consideration of water issues in national climate plans

Another “bottom-up'' approach tool for developing practical measures is the Water Tracker. It helps countries to independently assess and improve water security through the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). They usually ignore the strategic role of water in solving climate problems, although water is necessary both for efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and for adaptation to climate change.


The tool should also help with the distribution of funding among the most vulnerable countries. Dr Amgad Elmadi from the Green Climate Fund (a fund established under the UNFCCC as an operational body of the Financial Mechanism to assist developing countries in adaptation and mitigation to counter climate change) believes that the Water Tracker can affect the quality of climate finance and play a big role in its distribution. 


Today, 10 countries around the world are already involved in the Water Tracker project: Costa Rica, Egypt, Malawi, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Nepal, Palestine, Panama and Uruguay. Ms Nicole Franciso,from the Ministry of the Environment of Panama, said that they are already using this tool to understand how their NDCs will lead to their planned goals. Panama has not yet developed a National Adaptation Plan and claims that with the experience of using the Water Tracker, the development will definitely become more successful. Already now they have realized that data and indicators on water should be included in different sectors of the NDCs, including the energy sector.

Hydropower continues to be the main focus of interest

Rivers play a vital role in carbon sinks and increasing resilience to climate change, but hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) do not allow rivers to perform these essential functions. Despite the proven harm, large-scale hydropower is still considered by some decision-makers as an effective and just solution that helps reduce the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). At the same time, dams and reservoirs can be a major source of methane: in the case of flooding of areas with rich vegetation (which happens extremely often), the rotting of the biomass trapped under water begins. The larger the water surface formed is, as a result of flooding, the greater methane emissions are released.

Credit: Elizaveta Merinova, Friends of the Baltic, Friends of the Earth Russia

Ahead COP26 in Glasgow, 300 organizations from 69 countries issued the Global Declaration "Rivers for Climate", calling on governments and leaders participating in the UN climate negotiations to protect river ecosystems and stop using scarce climate funds to finance false climate solutions such as hydropower. At COP27, the organizations that signed the declaration, as part of the “Centering the protection of Rivers and rights in Achieving Climate Justice” event, spoke about ongoing projects in the field of large hydropower and shared cases of destruction of local ecosystems by HEPPs. Indigenous peoples are being displaced from the territories where their ancestors have lived for many centuries, biodiversity is declining, and flora and fauna are being lost. One of these projects is the Grand Inga, the world's largest hydropower scheme on the Congo River, in Africa. Erick Kassongo, Director of Centre Congolais pour le Développement Durable (CODED), who is working against this project, was right on point saying: “A clean energy source cannot harm the environment and the indigenous peoples of the territory!".

In conclusion

It is difficult to say unequivocally how much the world community is moving forward in solving problems related to water resources and water related disasters. On the one hand, the struggle continues dealing with the consequences of the problem and not with the cause, the promotion of false solutions (such as large hydroelectric power plants), the infringement of indigenous peoples, the degradation of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. On the other hand, there is progress in identifying tools and measures that will lead to ensuring water security. The key components are the analysis and study of the consequences of climate change related to water; improvement of water management; conservation of aquatic ecosystems, including measures to reduce anthropogenic impacts on the climate and on the purity of natural waters. The most important thing is that these measures must lead to a fair solution to problems and be primarily aimed at supporting people and their communities who suffer most from water problems.


The COP27´s final decision is definitely a step forward for the vulnerable countries with the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund. It also further acknowledges the role of ocean and “the critical role of protecting, conserving and restoring water systems and water-related ecosystems in delivering climate adaptation benefits and co-benefits, while ensuring social and environmental safeguards”, but it's still not enough for other actions needed to keep the 1.5C goal and fight the global climate crisis. 



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Article written by Elizaveta Merinova and Anna Ushakova, Friends of the Baltic, Friends of the Earth Russia

By CCB August 31, 2026
Uppsala, 31 August 2026 - Coalition Clean Baltic (CCB) welcomes the Commission’s recognition that declining fishing pressure has not consistently delivered higher biomass, that recruitment and biomass are deteriorating for a number of stocks, and that Baltic fisheries urgently need rebuilding trajectories. These findings must now shape the Council’s decision on the 2027 fishing opportunities and the Commission’s position during the Council negotiations. The poor status and decline of many Baltic Sea fish populations have been documented over several decades and show that the ecosystem is in severe distress. Cumulative human pressures have contributed to major ecosystem shifts, and at the same time climate change is making the shallow, semi-enclosed Baltic Sea warmer and less saline. These combined pressures affect not only fish biomass but also recruitment, population age and size structures, species interactions and the functioning of the wider food web. The Baltic crisis reflects the persistent failure to fully implement the CFP and the Baltic MAP, including their precautionary safeguards and the legal obligation to apply ecosystem-based fisheries management. Fishing opportunities for 2027 must therefore mark the first concrete step towards ambitious, timebound rebuilding trajectories that reduce fishing pressure and enable depleted populations to recover to healthy levels. These trajectories must include implementation of an ecosystem based approach by accounting for species interactions, food-web needs, habitat conditions, environmental and climatic change and scientific uncertainty, while reinforcing, not replacing the CFP’s objectives and the Baltic MAP’s existing safeguards in Art. 4.6. The Commission’s 2027 proposal is now before the Council. The October Council must turn the commitment to rebuild Baltic fish populations into measurable action by adopting fishing opportunities that deliver rapid and sustained recovery. Under no circumstances should the TACs adopted be higher than levels proposed by the European Commission. Fishing opportunities aligned with scientific evidence, legal safeguards and ecosystem needs are the basis for both a recovering Baltic Sea and viable fisheries in the long term. Read the full CCB's submission and recommendations here .
By CCB August 25, 2026
25 August 2026 - Following yesterday’s European Commission proposal for 2027 Baltic Sea fishing opportunities , environmental and angling organisations call on EU fisheries ministers not to treat the early signs of recovery for some Baltic Sea fish populations as a licence for steep quota increases. The latest scientific assessment on central Baltic herring shows some encouraging signs of improvement. This is welcome, but the changes are recent and do not mean that the population has fully recovered. An increase in biomass alone does not demonstrate that fish populations are healthy and resilient or justify higher catch limits. Fishing limits for small pelagic fish in the Baltic Sea have been set too high for years; last year’s Agriculture and Fisheries Council’s (AGRIFISH) decisions provide a recent example [1]. Herring proposals support recovery, but sprat’s wider ecosystem role must not be overlooked NGOs support the Commission’s proposed 2027 catch limit of 143,860 tonnes for central Baltic herring. Although 49% higher than last year, the proposal reflects the population’s recent growth, whilst also increasing the chances of the still fragile population to continue rebuilding. NGOs also cautiously welcome the proposed catch limit of 57,308 tonnes for Bothnian herring, a 3% increase, and the retention of the three- month spawning closure. Nevertheless, the population remains vulnerable and continues to be below healthy levels according to scientific advice [2]. An even more cautious fishing level would be needed in order to restore the population to the required healthy level. NGOs therefore strongly recommend a lower Total Allowable Catch (TAC) of 45,544 tonnes. For sprat, the proposed catch limit of 291,590 tonnes and proposed removal of the spawning closure do not sufficiently account for the observed and documented misreporting issues, or for species’ vital role in the wider Baltic Sea ecosystem. “The Commission has taken a careful approach to herring, and the same is needed for sprat. Sprat may be small, but they play a vital role in the Baltic Sea as key prey for cod, salmon and seabirds. Fisheries ministers should set a lower catch limit that leaves enough sprat in the sea to help the fragile Baltic Sea ecosystem recover,” says Cathrine Pedersen Schirmer, Senior Fisheries Policy Advisor, Coalition Clean Baltic. Cod remains in crisis Scientists continue to advise zero catch for both eastern and western Baltic cod in 2027, a reminder of how depleted these populations remain. NGOs welcome the Commission's proposal to reduce cod bycatch quotas by 51% (to 211 tonnes) for eastern Baltic cod and by 88% (to 31 tonnes) for western Baltic cod, and to maintain the current conservation measures. However, to increase the chances for recovery for Baltic cod populations, EU decision makers must walk the talk. New legal obligations require the use of fishing gear in flatfish fisheries designed to avoid accidental catches of cod. With this gear now mandatory, cod bycatch quotas should be reduced and set as close as possible to the advised zero catch. For plaice, the Commission proposes to keep the same fishing opportunity as in 2026. However, cod is also caught as bycatch in the plaice fishery. NGOs therefore urge ministers to keep the plaice quota at a lower level, no higher than 1,593 tonnes for 2027, to help reduce accidental cod catches. "Fishing opportunities for 2027 should reflect the objectives of the Nature Restoration Regulation. As Member States prepare their national restoration plans, fishing limits must help rebuild fish populations and support the recovery of resilient marine ecosystems. Overfishing and neglecting an ecosystem-based approach would undermine restoration efforts," says Justyna Zajchowska, Fisheries Lead for WWF Baltic Sea Programme. E ncouraging salmon returns do not show recovery across all rivers Salmon returns to several large rivers in Sweden and Finland have been encouraging in 2026 [3]. However, several smaller northern Swedish populations remain at critically low levels, and the effects of the three previous poor years are expected to persist. The regional picture therefore remains uneven. NGOs welcome the Commission’s proposal not to increase fishing opportunities for Baltic salmon. However, for both the Main Basin salmon and the Gulf of Finland salmon, fishing should only take place on compensatory released salmon or salmon from rivers where stocks are at full reproductive capacity. “Good returns to the Torne and several other large rivers are welcome, but Baltic salmon cannot be judged by a few rivers alone. Many smaller populations remain at critical levels, and there is no room to increase fishing pressure on wild salmon,” says Thomas Johansson, Chairman, Östersjölaxälvar i Samverkan, and Secretary General, Baltic Salmon Fund. Fisheries ministers must turn promises into action for a real recovery of the Baltic Sea When agreeing the Baltic Sea fishing opportunities for 2027 in October, EU fisheries ministers must apply a precautionary and ecosystem-based approach and: Follow the Commission’s proposal on fishing opportunities for: Central Baltic herring, Western Baltic herring, Eastern Baltic cod, Western Baltic cod; Set lower, more precautionary and ecosystem-based fishing opportunities for: sprat, Bothnian herring, Gulf of Riga herring, plaice, Main Basin salmon, Gulf of Finland salmon; Under no circumstances set fishing opportunities for Bothnian herring higher than the Commission’s proposal. A higher level of fishing would lead to a decrease in stock size; Honour the October AGRIFISH 2025 commitment by agreeing to a clear timetable for ambitious, time-bound rebuilding plans for every depleted Baltic Sea fish population, based on rebuilding trajectories that restore populations to healthy levels as quickly as possible; and Ensure that Baltic Sea fishing opportunities are aligned with EU nature restoration objectives, so that public and private work and investments in marine restoration are not undermined by continued overfishing, insufficient rebuilding measures and lack of implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management. In October 2025, the Commission and the eight Baltic EU Member States agreed [4] on the urgent need to rebuild Baltic Sea fish populations. The 2027 fishing-opportunities decision is the first real test of that commitment. Some improvements in Central Baltic herring and sprat show that recovery is possible ministers must now adopt fishing limits that secure that progress in the long term and give every depleted Baltic Sea fish population a credible chance to recover. - ENDS The full press release is available in PDF here . Extra info For the full joint NGO recommendations on Baltic Sea fishing opportunities for 2027, please see: https://www.ccb.se/joint-ngo-recommendations-on-baltic-sea-fishing-opportunities-for-2027 Central Baltic herring remains below the level at which rebuilding measures should begin. The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) expects the population to move only slightly above that level in 2027. Even then, fishing at the rate associated with maximum sustainable yield would leave a 36% probability of it falling below the threshold again in 2028 [5]. ICES also warns that the stock contains genetically distinct spawning groups and is therefore vulnerable to losses in genetic diversity and overall productivity [6]. The sprat population has grown and is now above key biomass reference points. However, fishing pressure is already at the level associated with maximum sustainable yield. ICES cautions that persistent misreporting of herring and sprat adds uncertainty to its assessment and advice [7]. Sprat is an important food source for cod, salmon and other marine wildlife [8], while ICES reports that industrial sprat fisheries can include substantial catches of herring [9]. Higher fishing pressure on sprat could therefore affect vulnerable herring populations as well as species that depend on sprat for food. Media contacts Beatrice Rindevall , Chairperson, Swedish Society for Nature Conservation, ordforande@naturskyddsforeningen.se Cathrine Pedersen Schirmer , Senior Fisheries Policy Advisor, Coalition Clean Baltic, Cathrine@ccb.se Justyna Zajchowska , Fisheries Lead, WWF Baltic Sea Programme, jzajchowska@wwf.pl Joonas Plaan , Board member, Marine and Climate programme, Estonian Fund for Nature, joonas.plaan@elfond.ee Dr. Katja Hockun , Senior Expert Meeresschutz, Deutsche Umwelthilfe e.V., hockun@duh.de Konrad Stralka , Executive Director, BalticWaters, konrad.stralka@balticwaters.org Magda Jentgena , Baltic Sea and Freshwater Programme Manager, Pasaules Dabas Fonds, mjentgena@pdf.lv Regan McEnroe , Chairperson, Nature and Youth Sweden, ordforande@faltbiologerna.se Tapani Veistola , Executive Director, Suomen luonnonsuojeluliitto (Finnish Association for Nature Conservation), tapani.veistola@sll.fi Thomas Johansson , Chairman, Östersjölaxälvar i Samverkan, and Secretary General, Baltic Salmon Fund, thomas@balticsalmonfund.com *** Notes [1] See joint NGO press release on the outcome: https://www.ccb.se/fisheries-ministers-risk-breaking-eu-law-jeopardising-baltic-sea-recovery [2] ICES (2026). Herring (Clupea harengus) in Subdivisions 30 and 31 (Gulf of Bothnia). ICES Advice: Recurrent Advice. Report. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.30932087.v1 [3] Finnish monitoring of salmon returns: https://luonnonvaratieto.luke.fi/numerotieto/raportit?panel=nousulohiseuranta&inits=REGION_ID%3D3&lang=en&state=REGION%3D3%3BREPORT%3Dfi%3Asalmon_run_monitoring%2F89%3BYEAR%3D2026 [4] Council of the European Union (2025), Draft minutes of the Agriculture and Fisheries Council , 27–28 October 2025, document 14646/25, p. 13, joint statement on the urgent need for rebuilding fisheries in the Baltic Sea. [5] ICES, Herring in subdivisions 25–29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga, pp. 1–2. The stock is currently below MSY Btrigger; projected biomass for 2027 is only 5% above it. Under the FMSY scenario, ICES estimates a 36% probability of biomass being below MSY Btrigger in 2028. https://ices-library.figshare.com/articles/report/Herring_i_Clupea_harengus_i_in_subdivisions_25-29_and_32_excluding_the_Gulf_of_Riga_central_Baltic_Sea_/30932081?file=65083161 [6] Ibid., p. 4. ICES identifies genetically distinct spawning components and warns of vulnerability to losses in genetic diversity and overall productivity. [7] ICES, Sprat in subdivisions 22–32: ICES advice . [8] Birgersson, L. and Pedersen Schirmer, C. (2025). Small fish with a big impact – a review of forage fish importance for a healthy Baltic Sea. FishSec (Fiskesekretariatet), Stockholm, Sweden. [9] ICES. 2026. Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group (WGBFAS). ICES Scientific Reports 8:39, section 7.2.5, p. 531. ICES reports that industrial sprat fisheries in several Baltic countries may include large bycatches of other species, predominantly herring. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.32455056