Eastern Baltic cod stock has collapsed – NGOs call to immediately close fishing of Eastern Baltic cod

CCB • April 11, 2019

Responding to  the release of an alarming new report by international fisheries scientists that Eastern Baltic Cod is at a critically low level , NGOs – Coalition Clean Baltic, Deutsche Umwelthilfe, Oceana, Our Fish, and WWFare calling on the fisheries ministers of all EU Baltic member states to immediately close the fishery.

Scientists and researchers have warned about the risk to the health of the eastern Baltic cod population for years – with specific concerns about the low stock numbers, small size at reproduction, and starvation [2] – but the alarm was raised during a regional Baltic meeting of fisheries stakeholders in January this year when scientists presented data from 2018 Baltic International Trawl surveys that found a record number of empty trawls [3].

Environmental NGOs Coalition Clean Baltic, Deutsche Umwelthilfe, Oceana, Our Fish, and WWF:

“This new ICES report, along with the data made available from last year’s Baltic international trawl surveys, provides a shocking image of how the population of Eastern Baltic cod has plunged to devastatingly low levels. Immediate emergency measures must be taken by Baltic fisheries ministers and the European Commission, including closing the fishery – or else face a legacy of having been responsible for the commercial extinction of this cod.”

The normal process for setting Baltic fishing levels for the following year begins with advice from ICES for all commercially exploited Baltic stocks on 29 May, and concludes in October when decisions from EU fisheries ministers on allowed catch levels and other measures are made at the AGRIFISH Council meeting.

“If we wait for the usual political process to run its course, it will mean goodbye to Eastern Baltic cod. In the meantime, fishing vessels will continue trawling up the last few fish that can reproduce during this spawning season starting in May. In addition, smaller sized cod risk to be thrown overboard”

The EU Common Fishery Policy (CFP) provides the solutions – it includes provisions for dealing with this form of serious threat to the marine environment. Articles 12 and 13 [4] of the CFP empower the Commission and Members States to take emergency measures. Baltic and European NGOs  have today written an open letter to all Baltic state fisheries ministers calling on them to implement national emergency measures.

CONTACTS

  • Dave Walsh, Communications Advisor, Our Fish, dave@our.fish , +34691826764 (EU)
  • Nils Hoglund, Fishery Policy Officer Coalition Clean Baltic, nils.hoglund@ccb.se , +46 708 679 249 (Sweden)
  • Andrzej Białaś, Policy Advisor, Oceana, abialas@oceana.org , +48 501588833 (Poland)
  • Katja Hockun, Project Manager Marine Conservation, Deutsche Umwelthilfe, +49 302400867-895, hockun@duh.de (Germany)
  • Ottilia Thoreson, Director, WWF Baltic Ecoregion Programme,  ottilia.thoreson@wwf.se , +46 8 6247415

NOTES
 

  1. ICES 2019, Report from Benchmark Workshop on Baltic Cod Stocks (WKBALTCOD2) p.77. http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Expert%20Group%20Report/acom/2019/WKBALTCOD2/WKBALTCOD2%202019.pdf
  2. ICES 2018 advice for Eastern Baltic cod
  3. https://our.fish/press/more-garbage-caught-than-cod-ngos-call-for-emergency-measures-to-protect-eastern-baltic-cod/
  4. Regulation (EU) No 1380/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 on the Common Fisheries Policy. Articles 12, 13

Extracts from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) eastern Baltic cod benchmark report published on 5th March 2019 (ICES. 2019. Benchmark Workshop on Baltic Cod Stocks (WKBALTCOD2). ICES Scientific Reports. 1:9. 310 pp.  http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20 Reports/Expert%20Group%20Report/acom/2019/WKBALTCOD2/WKBALTCOD2%202019.pdf)

  • The benchmark uses a new stock assessment model to allow an analytical assessment for the stock, which has been lacking since 2014. Moreover, reference points taking into account changes in productivity of the stock were also estimated, and procedures to conduct short-term forecasts were agreed. “…the quality of the assessment was found reasonable and the assessment appropriate to be used as the basis for advice for the eastern Baltic cod.”

Regarding the defining of appropriate new reference points the ICES benchmark report states: “The latest relatively strong year-class was formed in 2012 from an SSB of 98 000 t (Fig. 4.34). Therefore, Blim was set to this level, i.e. 98 000 t”. “Due to the presently very dynamic biological situation for the eastern Baltic cod, the current Blim at 98 000 t is considered to be applicable only in short term. The reproductive capacity of the stock needs to be closely monitored in coming years, and when new information becomes available, the Blim value needs to be re-evaluated.”

Furthermore, the report concludes regarding establishing an FMSY value:

“… analyses showed that even with FMSY at 0 the SSB would not be kept above Blim (98 000 t) in the long term, with 95% probability. (…) Even when applying a substantially lower value for Blim (53000 t), the result in terms of the stock being below Blim with more than 5% probability even at FMSY = 0 remained unchanged. In other words, following the ICES MSY framework for this stock, the estimated FMSY is equal to 0. For this reason, no F reference points were defined for this stock.”· Regarding the procedures to conduct short-term forecasts: “As there is no F reference point for this stock, probabilistic forecast with MCMC was proposed to be used instead. In this approach, catch and SSB levels corresponding to different F factors are calculated as in typical deterministic short term forecast but using MCMC to make it possible to also include the associated probability/risk of the SSB to be below Blim and Btrigger for each year of forecast. At the benchmark, this approach was approved to be used, and the actual forecast will be performed in the next WGBFAS.”

  • Regarding stock status, reproductive capacity and recruitment: “The year classes from 2015 and 2016 are estimated to be among the lowest since the 1990s (Fig. 4.34). Preliminary information from the BITS Q4 2018 survey indicates a weak year-class also for 2017. Moreover, preliminary information from the 2018 ichthyoplankton surveys shows very low larval abundances throughout the spawning season, suggesting a poor year-class also for 2018. This sequence of poor year-classes raises concerns about the current reproductive capacity of the stock, the recruitment possibly being impaired by the quality of the spawning stock. Therefore, the size of spawning stock (SSB) in tons alone is not considered representative for reproductive capacity for the stock at present, as the quality of the SSB needs to be considered as well”.
  • For further information and latest correspondence and documents concerning Eastern Baltic cod please visit: https://www.fishsec.org/2019/04/02/update-on-eastern-baltic-cod
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Brussels, 30 March 2026 - Today, Fisheries Ministers from EU Member States meet with the European Commission for the AGRIFISH Council. On this occasion, Oceana, BLOOM, ClientEarth, Coalition Clean Baltic (CCB), Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF), Seas At Risk and WWF EU, handed a symbolic ''Pandora’s Box'' to the EU Commissioner Costas Kadis, sending a clear message as the European Commission prepares its 2026 evaluation of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). The box represents the risks of revising EU’s main fishery policy framework: once opened, competing demands from Member States, industry, small-scale fishers, and coastal communities could quickly spiral into division, regulatory delays and uncertainties. This would put at risk the hard-won progress made in restoring Europe’s fish populations and improving the profitability of the fishing sector. NGOs urge decision makers to build on the progress made to date and to prioritise the full and timely implementation of the existing rules. Reopening the CFP and its related provisions would undermine ocean health and the long-term future of Europe’s fishing communities. '' Europe's fisheries policy is facing a credibility test. The law is already there. The tools to rebuild our seas already exist. What's missing is the political will to deliver. Overfishing should have ended by 2020 at the latest. Reopening the CFP would signal that missed deadlines carry no consequences, erode trust, revert the progress made, and put the future of our fisheries and coastal communities at stake ’’, said the NGO coalition. *** Oceana: Vera Coelho, Executive Director and Vice President in Europe BLOOM: Claire Nouvian, Founder and General Director ClientEarth: John Condon, Lead of Marine Ecosystems Coalition Clean Baltic (CCB): Ida Carlén, Co-Chair Environmental Justice Foundation: Steve Trent, CEO/Founder Seas At Risk: Dr Monica Verbeek, Executive Director WWF EU: Ester Asin, Director
By CCB March 10, 2026
Uppsala, March 2026 - CCB has closely worked with the implementation of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) ever since its adoption and welcomed the opportunity to give feedback to this crucial directive for marine biodiversity and ocean health through the EU Call of Evidence . Evaluations conducted by the EU Commission previously found many positive effects for EU marine waters stemming from the directive, but also that the directive has some shortcomings. CCB however, maintains that the largest obstacle to fully implementing the directive and achieving Good Environmental Status (GES) is the lack of political will among Member States to do so. This forthcoming revision must therefore result in a framework directive that is more easily enforceable, measurable and implementable, accompanied by sufficient funding to carry out the measures. Furthermore, in order to achieve GES as fast as possible other key pieces of EU legislation must also support reaching it and focus on achieving the goals of the MSFD in their objectives. Seeing that European seas generally are in poor condition and under mounting pressure from human activities and that in the Baltic Sea the situation is especially dire there is an urgent need for truly ecosystem-based management of our seas and for reaching GES. The revised MSFD can help us achieve this, but only if it includes the points outlined below and the directive is fully and swiftly implemented: *** [Short version]*** Operationalise the overarching GES goal: EU sea areas were supposed to reach GES already in 2020, but due to low political ambition, sadly did not do so. Member States should therefore strive to reach GES as fast as possible now. Setting a new overall deadline for when to reach GES is not the answer on how to achieve this goal most efficiently, instead tools that address pressures and measure progress and ensure actual, timely implementation of ambitious measures must be included in the revised directive in order to operationalise achieving the overall GES goal. CCB therefore recommends making the existing and forthcoming threshold values for the descriptors and their criteria legally binding and part of the main directive. Improving regional coordination and implementation: To improve the coherence, coordination and effectiveness of MSFD implementation, assessment of GES, monitoring and the national PoMs the role of the Regional Seas Conventions (RSCs) must be clarified. CCB would welcome collating all the national PoMs into one regional PoM for the Baltic Sea, which should be aligned with, in addition to reaching the goals of the MSFD, with achieving the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Land-sea interface: For the Baltic Sea to achieve GES it is key that land-based pressures, primarily nutrient runoff from agriculture causing severe eutrophication, is also addressed and that implementation of the MSFD goes hand in hand with the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The goals of the MSFD and achieving GES should also be included when implementing and shaping the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), as well as any synergies with implementing the EU Zero Pollution Action Plan which are also important to identify and utilise. The Baltic Sea also has a too high prevalence and level of other pollutants and hazardous substances affecting marine life. Fisheries and aquaculture: As one of the main pressure factors on the marine environment in general, as well as in the Baltic Sea, fisheries and aquaculture and the effects they have on the marine ecosystem and its biodiversity must be addressed in order to achieve GES. This is especially crucial when considering the MSFD descriptor for Biodiversity (D1), Fish and Shellfish (D3), Food webs (D4) and the one for Seabed integrity (D6). Climate change: Climate change is also affecting the Baltic Sea faster than other marine regions and must be factored in when managing the sea area and its resources to ensure EBM and the full implementation of the MSFD and achieving GES. The effects of the climate crisis should be accounted for when setting pressure reduction targets and threshold values for the descriptors and their criteria, in a way that when an effect cannot be measured nor predicted the precautionary principle must be used. Revising Art. 14 of the MSFD: Article 14 in the MSFD outlines the acceptable exceptions when reaching GES is not possible. The article needs to be revised in the forthcoming revision, since it contains too many and too broad in scope possibilities for exemptions (e.g. in Art. 14(4)), which jeopardise the implementation and fulfilment of the directive as a whole. A possible way of modifying it would be to introduce an obligation for Member States to demonstrate that they have taken all measures within their control nationally and that they have tried to address the problem and advance solving it on a regional level through cooperating with other Member States, before they can apply for a possible exemption. Make the Programme of Measures contain ambitious & concrete measures: One of the cornerstones of the MSFD is the national PoMs that are published every six years and are precluded by an assessment of GES in national waters and a monitoring programme. Unfortunately, the current approach to PoMs where Member States freely can choose measures has led to an overall too low level of ambition in the PoMs, and to large differences within regions and between neighboring countries in terms of which measures are included. In order to fully implement the directive and to achieve GES it is of paramount importance that the national PoMs have a high level of ambition and contain concrete, implementable measures and that there is regional coordination. Easing the reporting burden: One of the results from the evaluation of the MSFD was that the current reporting burden is considered to be too high and a possible way to address this is to align the reporting obligations of the MSFD to more reassemble those of the WFD, that has a more simplified 6-year cycle compared to the MSFD. The implementation cycle however should not be revised or at least not in a way that delays reaching GES. Improve coherence with other legislation: To ensure that the revised MSFD is fully implemented it is essential that coherence with other relevant legislation is improved. The MSPD (foundation for the forthcoming Ocean Act) is also currently being revised and to reach the goals for both the directives achieving GES needs to be a cornerstone of the Ocean Act. This is the only way to deliver truly ecosystem-based management of our seas, and the revision of both directives should therefore be coordinated and focused on achieving GES. CCB looks forward to continuing to provide input to the revision process of the MSFD as well as working with the implementation of the MSFD, especially in the Baltic Sea. CCB expects that the revision will result in a more enforceable directive that leads to the fast implementation of ambitious measures to improve the state of the Baltic and European Sea areas and to the achievement of GES. The full text of the submission is available here . *** Links to supplemental documents supporting our positions: CCB’s submission to the Call for Evidence for the Ocean Act Guiding Recommendations for Source-to-Sea Restoration in Riverine, Coastal, and Marine Ecosystems (Coalition Clean Baltic, 2025) Position Paper on Marine Protected Areas (Coalition Clean Baltic 2024) Don’t sink the Common Fisheries Policy – fulfil its potential (joint NGO Briefing 2025) Blue Manifesto (joint NGO paper)